Journalism is better when it's backed by people, not markets

Have you seen the news? Or, not the news, but the press releases? “Prediction markets,” which are fundamentally gambling companies that benefit from preferential regulatory treatment, are shacking up with putative “news organizations.”

In December, CNN and CNBC signed “multi-year exclusive partnerships with prediction market platform Kalshi to integrate event-based probabilities across its TV, digital, and subscription products from 2026.” Polymarket has cut similar deals with Dow Jones, Yahoo, and Substack.

This is a familiar playbook. Outside of Defector and a few other oases, contemporary sports media primarily functions as the top of the funnel for gambling interests. There is an addled, soulless logic to running this scheme back with the political and financial press. 

To their credit (?), Polymarket has put a fresh coat of heavily leaded paint on the approach: The post announcing their Substack deal highlights an anti-vaccine and pro-Ghislaine-Maxwell influencer linking to the odds that the US government confirms that aliens are real. They expect you to regard this as the future of journalism; it is followed by a disclaimer that none of this “financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice.” 

I’ll grant that this is one possible future of journalism. But Defector is another, better future. We don’t feed our readers to gambling companies; we don’t use generative AI; we don’t have outside investors to please. Subscribers enable our critical, independent stance. If you’re as sick of this shit as I am, please consider becoming one: